October 7 constitutes a watershed event in the history of the Near East and beyond. With multiple human and geopolitical taboos shattered, the full consequences of the massacre and its aftermath are yet to be fully appreciated. Departing from an understanding of the blatant failure of imagination that contributed to misinterpreting otherwise observable Iranian intentions and capacities, it is now imperative to ponder and address the following proposition: could the clerical regime in Tehran take an off-ramp, or is a dramatic escalation of the conflict with Iran inevitable? And if so, would the doctrine of Mutual Assured Destruction that saw the world through the Cold War be at all applicable in the context of Tehran’s extremist worldview? Join us as two seasoned observers of the region game out for the audience a range of scenarios as seen through the lens of the various local actors themselves.

For years, the Chairman of 92NY Talks, Dr. Thomas S. Kaplan — investor, cultural and environmental conservationist, activist, and analyst of the Middle East with longstanding ties to the Arab world and Israel — has warned both publicly and privately about the escalating threat posed to the region and the world by the failure of Israel and the West to deter Tehran’s strategy of employing proxies targeting Israel and the Gulf states. Join him as he returns to the stage for a multifaceted conversation moderated by one of our nation’s most renowned practitioners of Near Eastern analysis and strategy, Norman T. Roule — a storied 34-year veteran of the CIA and, from 2008-2017, the National Intelligence Manager for Iran.

Kaplan and Roule, two experienced participants in Middle Eastern affairs with deep bonds to the region’s people, cultures, and leaderships, will engage in a dynamic and thought-provoking exchange, deploying their respective and shared insights to discuss the trajectory of the ongoing conflict and its far-reaching implications.